Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

The contract has an exit clause, either side can terminate the agreement with 90 days notice. I do not expect this contract to last the full 3-year term.

And this deal protects Google's investment. Google owns close to $100 billion of SpaceX stock. This deal increases SpaceX's revenue by 30%, and pushes SpaceX into profitability. With this deal, SpaceX is eligible for S&P inclusion. Assuming $6-7 trillion in S&P 500 tracked funds, and a 1% SpaceX weight after a year, this is $600-700 billion in demand for SpaceX stock. It means Google now has someone to unload its position off to. This play directly protects Google's investments.



Not doing much to beat the accusations of circular dealing are they?


I think your point still stands, but a correction that 1% of $6-7T is $60-70B, not $600-700B.


My mistake, I'm running on a lack of sleep.


> This deal increases SpaceX's revenue by 30%, and pushes SpaceX into profitability. With this deal, SpaceX is eligible for S&P inclusion.

You keep saying this even though you don’t present any evidence that it will make SpaceX profitable. Where are your numbers?


SpaceX announced $26B/year in compute deals with Anthropic and Google in the past week. The margins on both deals are incredibly high, Google is paying around $11.75/hour per GPU. Infrastructure costs are far below that, SpaceX likely has 70-90% margins. These two deals are around $20B/year profit. In the preliminary S-1, SpaceX reported a $5B loss in 2025. Combining these numbers, that's a $15B profit, assuming losses are constant. Likely expenditures will increase, but even if losses double, that's a very healthy $10B profit.


Where did you get your costs and margins from? I have direct experience in this business and I can tell you they’re usually not that high. These machines are also not cheap to power, cool, and house.

As a comparison point, CoreWeave’s most recently reported operating margin was 16%.


And Google will exit at 12 months when the S&P seasoning period and 4 quarters of profitability are satisfied.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: