The obesity adjustment is worth quantifying. US adult obesity: 42% (CDC). UK: 28%, Australia: 31%, Germany: 22%. Those gaps are real, but they don't explain a 2.5x per-capita spending differential. The Commonwealth Fund's 2021 analysis controlled for age, income, and chronic condition burden; the US still spent roughly $5,000 more per capita than the next-highest spender (Switzerland).
Obesity also matters less than assumed in hospital pricing: a hip replacement costs $29,000 commercially in the US regardless of patient BMI, vs. $15,000 in Germany and $9,000 in Spain (iFHP 2024). The cost structure is in the pricing system. Johns Hopkins researchers estimated eliminating US obesity would reduce healthcare spending by about 12%, real but not 2.5x. Repo with methodology: https://github.com/rexrodeo/american-healthcare-conundrum
Obesity also matters less than assumed in hospital pricing: a hip replacement costs $29,000 commercially in the US regardless of patient BMI, vs. $15,000 in Germany and $9,000 in Spain (iFHP 2024). The cost structure is in the pricing system. Johns Hopkins researchers estimated eliminating US obesity would reduce healthcare spending by about 12%, real but not 2.5x. Repo with methodology: https://github.com/rexrodeo/american-healthcare-conundrum