In 10 years, no trace of our current practices will remain in a recognizable form. It'll take longer than most of us think -- imagine how nonplussed Winograd and the rest of the SHRDLU-era AI gurus would have been to see how long it took to pull off the dice-matching trick in the video -- but when it does happen, it'll happen faster than we think. We're not yet at the tipping point, but it's close.