This is mostly just for fun and will be mostly wrong because none of the people who are making predictions take it seriously. And none of the upvoters take it seriously either.
There is a discipline to making predictions (Phil Tetlock has observed a few traits: avoiding base rate fallacies, working in probabilities not binaries, making falsifiable predictions, and continuously updating).
None of the predictions here do that, so we shouldn’t expect any kind of reasonable hit rate.
There is a discipline to making predictions (Phil Tetlock has observed a few traits: avoiding base rate fallacies, working in probabilities not binaries, making falsifiable predictions, and continuously updating).
None of the predictions here do that, so we shouldn’t expect any kind of reasonable hit rate.
It’s just end of year fun.