Not really. Let's look at Bell's Law from 1972 to understand this:
"Roughly every decade a new, lower priced computer class forms based on a new programming platform, network, and interface resulting in new usage and a new industry."
So we can say, generally, mainframes, minicomputers, workstations, microcomputers, laptops, smart phones, and now wearables (watches, rings, wallets, bracelets, glasses, etc)
Next we'll have something I'll call the Mckenzie corollary (that's me I guess):
"Roughly a decade or two after introduction, the lower price computer class will subsume the upper price computing class."
So the minicomputers took on mainframe tasks.
The workstations took on the minicomputer tasks.
The microcomputers took on the workstation tasks.
Laptops took on the micros. All this happened with a significant lag time.
And now, the smartphones are vying for the laptops.
These are superstructural transformations and take years because a bunch of new things need to be invented, developed, mastered and widely deployed for it to happen.
We are roughly in the wearables and phones-become-laptops epoch.
Let's look at The Poverty of Historicism from 1944 to understand why you can't predict societal change with laws.
"[The evolution of] human society, is a unique historical process ... Its description, however, is not a law, but only a singular historical statement."
Karl Popper was being a logician about it. People aren't claiming supernatural powers with market trend analysis like some Helena Blavatsky of electronics or that these "laws" hold like thermodynamics.
If it's been good for 60 years so that might continue or maybe something unexpected will happen.
Popper's piecemeal alternative predicts nothing. The market trend analysis is at least accurate > 0% of the time. It's a non-scientific process with unquantifiable accuracy but it is empirically non-zero. For instance, Geofferey Moore's adoption curves proposed in 1991 are widely found but, every now and then, the galloping animal is a zebra. This doesn't mean you shouldn't plan for horses.
Presuming a decade or two from now people will connect their wearables powered by kinetic charging to foldable e-paper with a transparent solar panel layer is just a bet.
Maybe something radical will happen instead: The public payphone will come back as a public computer that people will biometrically log into after shunning personal electronics as toxic spy machines ruining society. Eh, probably not, but maybe.
The low end eventually becomes a satisfiable alternative for price sensitive consumers and may become the majority market if _consumer preferences follow_.
That's important. Even more expensive brands in the purely functional space like Tektronix, DeWalt and Zojirushi can still command a preference and not for the same reason as Patek Philippe or Christian Louboutin.
Also when preferences aren't considered, the base observation can become rather risky.
For example, it implies a majority of American cars will eventually be electric microcars like the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV or Chery QQ Ice Cream because:
1. Most cars on the road were bought used and these cars cost less than a used car.
2. The battery efficiency of the smaller vehicle means you can charge it without special hardware in reasonable time.
3. The vehicle speed and range are increasingly adequate to satisfy most consumers needs.
Do I think an EV microcar revolution is coming to the US? No. There's zero evidence of that. American consumer preferences would need to change first.
Fickle human behavior is an X factor in any market.
Preferences can change however. Pretend Apple comes out with iCar, a sleek electric microcar or Costco introduces Kirkland CarTwo, a practical second car that charges in a few hours on a normal outlet. Perfect for teenagers and easy to park in small spaces. Cost? $89/month for 48 months.
I basically just pitched the Geely Panda Mini EV or a number of similar cars which have been in production for years. The tech is here. The American preferences are not. Not yet.
I'd like to ignore American Consumer Preferences and talk about engineering examples.
Linux/OSS/MySQL: These were seen as toy alternatives to the real thing. Linux eventually displaced all the proprietary Unix operating systems. And it still isn't at feature parity with some of those OSes decades later.
Same goes for X86 and Arm.
High margin stagnant businesses often get consumed by a toy entrant that crosses that inflection point where it does what it needs to do for 20% of price. When the cost of something is less than your margin, you are screwed.
On the ACP in regards to vehicles. Americans have been conned into liking low-end vehicles wrapped in a high-end sheen. SUVs are high margin vehicles partially because they are cheap pickup trucks. US auto manufacturers got their asses handed to them imports from Japan, where people did prefer smaller, lighter more efficient vehicles. There was then an effort across all auto companies to change the tastes of US car buyers so that foreign vehicles couldn't compete.
# Semantic Scholar links for the paper, "Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention"
"Roughly every decade a new, lower priced computer class forms based on a new programming platform, network, and interface resulting in new usage and a new industry."
So we can say, generally, mainframes, minicomputers, workstations, microcomputers, laptops, smart phones, and now wearables (watches, rings, wallets, bracelets, glasses, etc)
Next we'll have something I'll call the Mckenzie corollary (that's me I guess):
"Roughly a decade or two after introduction, the lower price computer class will subsume the upper price computing class."
So the minicomputers took on mainframe tasks. The workstations took on the minicomputer tasks. The microcomputers took on the workstation tasks. Laptops took on the micros. All this happened with a significant lag time.
And now, the smartphones are vying for the laptops.
These are superstructural transformations and take years because a bunch of new things need to be invented, developed, mastered and widely deployed for it to happen.
We are roughly in the wearables and phones-become-laptops epoch.