Recession kicks in. Huawei able to do 7nm...but the bulk of chip sales are at 14nm+. China in 2022 end has successfully dominated that market near 80%. The pre-order for Huawei mate 60 already reaching 10m+ just a week ago and projected to reach 60m by 2024 end. Meanwhile China pretty much banned iPhone "subtlely" by forbiding their government servants using that (which can translate to around 100m people if you read between the line meaning ccp members). The euphoric news sensations are mostly CIA Uncle Sam propaganda. If you go into labor market or ask any HR the picture aren't as rosy as what you read on the media. Also, I have very reliable source China already at 3nm just yield is very low for mass market production. They should be able to reach that around Dec 2024 though TSMC probably will announce their 2nm. So 2025 is when China on par with TSMC making the war inevitable around 2026 as many fengshui masters calculated large chaotic event in that year.