If I was a gambling person I would say that interpretation of fair use is going to fall in the next 20 years as there is just too much weight put on it currently, and AI is just going to make it untenable in its current form.
In addition, the fair use test contains a pillar about the use not affecting the market for the copyright holder's works[1] which I think in google's case (and probably in the current openAI case too) seems obviously not to have worked out (ie google's use has demonstrably negatively affected the market for the original copyrighted work in cases such as news for example).
> ie google's use has demonstrably negatively affected the market for the original copyrighted work in cases such as news for example
Most news sites wouldn't get any traffic without search engines and aggegrators. Which is why they are now whining about FB et al no longer sending them traffic.
And let's not forget that both traditional and online news is no stranger to republishing other people's content - one of the reasons fair use exists in the first place.
I have no love for big tech but let's not pretent that this is about anything other than news publishers wanting more gibs.
In addition, the fair use test contains a pillar about the use not affecting the market for the copyright holder's works[1] which I think in google's case (and probably in the current openAI case too) seems obviously not to have worked out (ie google's use has demonstrably negatively affected the market for the original copyrighted work in cases such as news for example).
[1]: https://fairuse.stanford.edu/overview/fair-use/four-factors/