I think the driver of Theories 3+4 will be that with high interest rates we are heading into a recession. A major driver of this recession will be a massive collapse in commercial real estate and CMBS. As the recession really gets underway then the back-to-office movement will flip on its head and companies will start to really get aggressive about cuttings costs and shuttering offices in order to survive, which will only accelerate the commercial real estate collapse even more.
The headcount reduction in tech so far has been literally nothing. Mostly that was just readjusting for the post-pandemic hiring explosion in tech.
It'll still be 6-12 months though (at least) before higher interest rates really start to bite. There's $162B in commercial real estate securities maturing in 2023 which is going to be the first real substantial detonation in the economy.
That should set us up for having a really horrible economy in 2024, we'll probably be diving into the recession or hitting the bottoms around Nov 2024.
The headcount reduction in tech so far has been literally nothing. Mostly that was just readjusting for the post-pandemic hiring explosion in tech.
It'll still be 6-12 months though (at least) before higher interest rates really start to bite. There's $162B in commercial real estate securities maturing in 2023 which is going to be the first real substantial detonation in the economy.
That should set us up for having a really horrible economy in 2024, we'll probably be diving into the recession or hitting the bottoms around Nov 2024.