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Except that's not true.

At the end of the day all stock market returns come from one's of 3 things:

Dividends

Earnings per Share growth

Multiple expansion

Over the long run the speculation that you so decry ( which amounts to Multiple expansion) has a negligible impact (less than 1%).

Sure you have plenty of short term booms and busts, but over the long term they are really irrelevant.



> At the end of the day all stock market returns come from one's of 3 things

None of which really reflect reality, and rely on basically pure speculation.

They also depend on the stock to go up up up up.

> Over the long run the speculation that you so decry ( which amounts to Multiple expansion) has a negligible impact (less than 1%).

Over the long run stocks are just speculation.


I disagree that the others are 100% pure speculation, but let's just look at the case of dividends.

Dividends (especially for companies with a long track record of paying and increasing them) are reality as far as I can tell.


Huh? How do dividends depend on “stock to go up up up”? That’s opposite of my experience. How does EPS have anything to do with stock price? I think you have it all backwards.

Stock PICKing is speculative because we can’t predict the future. But that doesn’t mean that the future is unhinged from underlying fundamentals.


Dividends and EPS are real and don't rely on stock movement at all. It's the exact opposite where they drive stock movement.




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