Vibe shift is just another term for a change in elite aspirant opinion. The vibe is localized to highly trend conscious social and professional milieus. These scenes are often regarded as a cultural vanguard, but are in fact often detached from the majority of the population, and are less harbingers of broad shifts in public opinion, and more simple reporters on their own microclimates. That is all to say, the hard numbers might not materialize for some time, if at all, and not for the reasons presently stated.
Even if a vibe shift is recognized it isn’t necessarily described so.
Looking at the earliest comments that include “tiktok” on this site, the product wove its way into mentions before some article blew it up.
That said if you were on the service when the boss walk was just breaking, and experienced the product’s progression (as a user) to Old Town Road, it was obvious something big was going on—before the numbers were there.