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I think it's looking at Tesla's 875 billion dollar market cap and saying "I can do that". Which I think they can. They'll sell a ton of cars on brand alone so long as they don't mess it up.

It's kind of an interesting dichotomy. You can look at Toyota, GM, Tesla, etc. and say why would Apple be interested in those profits. But then you look at Tesla's market cap and then it's obvious why Apple would want some of that.

Ultimately I think the Apple car (and Tesla) is a long term bust. Automotive manufacturing is a well trod industry with, frankly, too many companies as is. I don't see how they could ever generate the sort of profits long term that the market caps imply.



Tesla is basically an overrated meme stick by any reasonable valuation.

Apple isn’t going to get that type of added market cap based on adding an addition $3 billion in net profit (what Tesla made)


Tesla definitely has some smoke and mirrors going on and is clearly overvalued but I feel like calling them a meme stock at this point is pretty inaccurate. Teslas are on the road doing things and the company is selling them in pretty serious quantities... all against the seemingly iron willed determination of Elon Musk to bankrupt the company by creating a PR nightmare and wasting money.


Compare their sales and profits to other car makers. They are grossly overvalued


Compare their sales growth to other car makers. Compare their profit margins to other car makers.


Yes just like every startup. “We had 1% of the market and grew to 2%. We doubled in the last year and are growing much faster than the incumbents”.

In what rational world should Tesla have a PE of 20x GM?


If they are priced like a startup and growing like a startup, that might indicate something crazy about how startups are priced, but it isn't unique to Tesla.


Tesla is a public company, and if you haven’t checked, startups and recently public former unicorns aren’t doing too well these days.


We will pretty much know in the next few years. If they deliver 2 mil in 2023 and 4mil in 2024 that would be a very good indicator.


And that will still be less than 1/4 the number of cars that Toyota sells and won’t justify its valuation by any realistic criteria.


Toyota sells 10 mil The idea was that would show that trend holds at a large volume.


Yes, but as a counter point they are grossly overvalued. If you can get the same gross overvaluation, which Apple probably can, then why not do it? Especially if you can goose the stock price long enough to hit your bonus metrics and cash out.


The markets aren’t going to value Apple like Tesla just because they enter the same industry. Tesla has an earning multiple right now of 99.52x compared to Apple’s 25.3x.

Adding another 4 billion in profits when it already makes around $19.44B is not going to get the market to value its stock higher anymore than Disney adding streaming helped it to be worth the multiple that Netflix was.

But the market can stay irrational longer than most people can stay solvent


Overvalued, yes. Completely? Hell no.




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