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There is so much leverage in the economy that an abrupt shift towards anything approaching Volker-level rates would mean a catastrophic level of defaults in all sectors. By keeping rates so low for so long what they've really done is paint themselves into a corner.

The best case I see is that they raise rates by 1-2 pct and accept a few years of elevated inflation followed by a gradual normalization towards a long term mean. I really don't believe hyperinflation is a big risk.



There was an abrupt shift in the bond market already. BND fell by 8% this year, which is a terrible 3.5 month return for an intermediate bond fund (prices move inversely to market interest rates). Corporate bond funds have fallen even more.


> anything approaching Volker-level rates would mean a catastrophic level of defaults in all sectors

That’s the point: raise interest rates until they cause a recession, that suppresses demand and so kills inflation.




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