That searches magnitude 7 and above for the last 24 months in a rectangular region that includes Japan and Taiwan. There's only been three, one was yesterday and two roughly a year ago in February and March.
So your intuition said arrogantly about earthquakes in Japan is incorrect, waay incorrect. Also I don't know if I got the probabilities totally right (but it seems fair for the probability of those other three earthquakes being in March, versus other months), but you said this as if you knew what you were talking about. But you don't. Seems like I'm the one here who knows what he's talking about, not you, sorry. Why not do a little research before you make your bold and arrogant claims trying to contradict someone else next time?
To get any meaningful results, we'll need a decent sample size. Magnitude 7.0+ quakes in Japan are a fairly rare phenomenon, occurring 1-2 times per year. If we pull out a somewhat larger data set of 136 such quakes in the last 100 years (https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/japan/largest.h...), we'll notice that the quakes are fairly evenly distributed between the months.
The mean is (of course) 8.33%, and the standard deviation 1.91%. All months fall within 2 standard deviations from the mean (March is highest at 11.62%, followed by Feb at 11.06%, Jun 10.51% and Nov 9.76%). So, nothing particularly interesting to see here. Also, if we do the same "three-month window" analysis you did, the winner is February (with 30.68%, somewhat higher than the expected 25%).
Wow, I just checked out that website and I can't believe you did that analysis! That's pretty awesome. You somehow got the data out of that site, and analyzed it.
But I did a quick sanity check on your numbers (searching on that site quakes from March 18 1922 to March 18 2022) and there are actually 153 quakes 7+ (not 136). If you share the raw data it will be more convincing!
Unless you do I'm going to take my 10 year sample from 2011 with a 68.75% of chance of quake in March (+- 1 month) as gospel :)
So pretty hard to predict and essentially random, meaning predicting when a given quake will occur should be, extremely challenging, essentially predicting a random variable, which would be pretty incredibly amazing. Good to see.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-32.6208...
That searches magnitude 7 and above for the last 24 months in a rectangular region that includes Japan and Taiwan. There's only been three, one was yesterday and two roughly a year ago in February and March.
So your intuition said arrogantly about earthquakes in Japan is incorrect, waay incorrect. Also I don't know if I got the probabilities totally right (but it seems fair for the probability of those other three earthquakes being in March, versus other months), but you said this as if you knew what you were talking about. But you don't. Seems like I'm the one here who knows what he's talking about, not you, sorry. Why not do a little research before you make your bold and arrogant claims trying to contradict someone else next time?