I'm going to quibble. This is all unfounded, you're probably right and I'm a fool.
the statistic, adding 1 degree to the temperature isn't that bad. That statistic nicely glosses over the huge amount of energy added to the system. 1 degree isn't going to melt the icecaps. 1 degree is a huge amount of energy. I think, that energy is going to make things hotter and colder and less predictable.
Moving the mean is, well not fine but that's what we're doing. Have to accept reality as it is. But as far as I can tell, we're not shifting the distribution to the right. We are flattening the distribution, the median is moving +X. So, we've got fatter tails.
Those fat tails suck. we're finely attuned to current variance, we can deal with a cold or hot day. But that fatter tail, that's the fucker. A cold or hot week is deadly.
It makes sense that adding energy to the system can lead to higher temperatures and more extreme cases of winds and precipitation.
It makes less sense that it should lead to extreme cold.
Indeed, the Lancet study did say that the number of deaths from cold were on the way down.
Also, if examining the data further, most deaths are NOT in extremely cold countries, but rather in South East Asia and Africa.
I remember spending some time in a tropical country about 10 years ago, and when I was there, there was a few nights of "extreme" weather, where nighttime temperatures fell all the way to +14C (plus!). The government declared a state of emergency, and distributed blankets to the poorest people, to prevent oo many deaths.
Clearly, the main problem is poverty, not extreme weather.
the statistic, adding 1 degree to the temperature isn't that bad. That statistic nicely glosses over the huge amount of energy added to the system. 1 degree isn't going to melt the icecaps. 1 degree is a huge amount of energy. I think, that energy is going to make things hotter and colder and less predictable.
Moving the mean is, well not fine but that's what we're doing. Have to accept reality as it is. But as far as I can tell, we're not shifting the distribution to the right. We are flattening the distribution, the median is moving +X. So, we've got fatter tails.
Those fat tails suck. we're finely attuned to current variance, we can deal with a cold or hot day. But that fatter tail, that's the fucker. A cold or hot week is deadly.