> we're coming at the end of a tech bubble, the money will start receding, and organizations have already been realizing they don't need so many coders (and other staff) after all.
This is an interesting point. Is this really happening though? Tech valuations pretty much bounced back up. Gut feeling says yes something is wrong with the current monetary system, and a bust cycle should be coming, but with the 0% interest rate and massive quantitative easing, maybe this can go on for longer than we think...
Even if it isn't an outright recession, it appears that VC funding is drastically pulling back, though maybe it's COVID-19-specific [0]. And the ongoing implosion of the Softbank Vision Fund seems to have had a domino effect that preceded the pandemic, with the waves of layoffs across that fund's wide portfolio in January.
It certainly feels as if some bubble is getting burst, even if it's not the entire tech industry's.
Yes, the feeling is that something is off.
But a lot of economists have been feeling this for 5 years; some even claim we never really recovered from 2002 and 2008 busts but only snowballed the problem to the future.
That said, it very well may be that this cheap money era continues. It's very hard to determine when and what will happen.
I'd say exactly the opposite. It feels like there have been a succession of well-needed adjustments, rather than a bubble popping. On paper post-2008 has been the biggest bull run ever, but people still feel caution; the "irrational exuberance" that pumps up a bubble hasn't come yet.
The adjustments are still being made. I’d say your point would be stronger after more market corrections have been made- for example, the notoriously unsustainable and unprofitable food delivery app space is still being propped up by this crisis.
This is an interesting point. Is this really happening though? Tech valuations pretty much bounced back up. Gut feeling says yes something is wrong with the current monetary system, and a bust cycle should be coming, but with the 0% interest rate and massive quantitative easing, maybe this can go on for longer than we think...