We only have theories for what intelligence even means, I wouldn't be surprised there are more similarities than differences between human minds and LLMs, fundamentally (prediction and error minimization)
1) Not a throaway, can't remember what my old account is called
2) Feel free to screen shot. Stick it on your desktop and set a reminder and check the state of the world in 12 months time.
For some of us, the world has already changed drastically. I am shipping more code, better code, less buggy code WAY faster than ever before. Big systemic changes for the better to our infra as well. There are days where I easily do 2 weeks worth of my best work ever.
I totally understand that not everyone is having that experience. And yet until people live it, it seems they just discount the experience others are having.
>I am shipping more code, better code, less buggy code WAY faster than ever before.
It's clearly relative. For all we know you're a crap coder and AI is now your crutch. We have no evidence that with AI you are as good as an average developer with a fair amount of experience. And even if you do have a fair amount of experience, that doesn't mean you're a good coder.
Cool, and you're doing it on top of the single largest IP hijacking in the history of the world, a massive uptick in infra spend and energy burn to "just throw more compute" at it instead of figuring out how to throw "the right compute at it", cannibalization of the onboarding graduates, and losing having enough friction to keep you from running off after what's probably a bad idea on further analysis, because you can crank this out in a weekend. Last time somewhat did that, we got fucking JS. We still haven't rid ourselves of it.
12 months I won't be surprised if there's not much change. But in 5 years? 10? Anything can happen. It is presumptuous to think you can project the future capabilities of this technology and confidently state that labour markets will never be affected.
Guys like you dont get it. You think OAI, Amazon etc can freely put large amounts of money into this for 5-10 years? Lmao - delusional. Investors are impatient. Show huge jumps in revenue this year or you no longer have permission to put monumental amounts of money into this anymore.
Short of that they'll just destroy the stock price by selling off; leaving employees who get paid via SBC very unhappy.
Whether investors will see returns soon enough to service their debt loads is entirely another matter. I do agree the likely course of action is we get a crash of sorts, since the only way their investments pan out is if labour is replaced entirely which of course sounds unlikely in near term.
My point is the cat is out of the bag. It doesn't take massive investments to achieve iterative improvements on SOTA. As long as the technology does not plateau, smaller labs have shown it's possible to advance the frontiers independent of large companies/investments. And as these frontiers advance, more and more of economical knowledge work will be subsumed by AI. I don't see a way out of this, which is why I am a strong proponent of wealth distribution eg UBI.
Whatever you want to say about other companies, Amazon (and Meta) is quite willing to spend many years pouring billions into technology they think will pay off later.
That is not how Gotham works. The data you're talking about is most definitely not "just there" for anyone to have. The data is provided by the military and IC, Gotham is the data viz layer to make sense of it all. It does nothing on its own.
Why so quick to moralize? What makes you think your perspective on world population is justified and his isn't?
This could have been an opportunity for both of you to understand each other's perspective. That's why you asked their thoughts on the matter right? It's a shame you let that pass you by.
I asked his thoughts on the matter because I assumed he didn't want to see Japan end since he had a connection to it. But, he didn't give a fuck if they ended, nor Korea.
And if you think they'y aren't ending, you need to go look at the numbers and then look at the double speak on solutions. There are no known solutions. Every solution requires a miracle that has never happened.
Thank you for explaining. Could be he's a misanthrope, through life experiences or such.
I share the same sentiments as you, it'd be a tragic loss. But saying they'd "end" is well, unlikely. The countries will shrink. Japan population could reach 60M by 2100 if nothing is done. That's still a lot of people and by then other factors will dominate and fertility may rise again.
Humans are adaptive and a lot can change in half a century, so I would not overly index on what projections say. Everything would need to stay static for the projections to matter, which given the rate of technological changes and geopolitical tension, sounds likely.
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