Come on, no one knows... after 10 years in computation neuroscience + experimental neuroscience.
The slope of neuroscience advances in very very low (some will say negative).
The slope of AI advances in much much higher.
--> we will get an AI to understand the brain an explain to us, it will not come from a lab.
Yeah I have these same concerns about the US dollar. People are like "oh but it's so stable yada yada". At most it's been that way since WW2. It's not THAT long. A blip in the history of human civilization at best.
At what point does that stop being a logical fallacy? We’re on year 13, is it year 30? 50? If there’s no end date then this can be said about everything and is therefore not a fallacy.
Not sure at what point USD was no longer a logical fallacy. If it's the 1971 non-gold-standard dollar to now, then it's exactly 50 years as of now. Or for the full history of the dollar it's 229 years.
I don't know if you read that link or have read elsewhere on the topic but modern economists argue the tulip mania thing wasn't even a bubble and if it was, it was far smaller than you probably assume. Even the wikipedia page covers these topics quite nicely.
"contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels, with the major acceleration starting in 1634 and then dramatically collapsing in February 1637"
From the same page -- the Tulip market didn't start at the time of the bubble.
Their popularity and cultivation in the United Provinces (now the Netherlands)[32] is generally thought to have started in earnest around 1593 after the Southern Netherlandish botanist Carolus Clusius had taken up a post at the University of Leiden and established the hortus academicus
The dot-com bubble lasted around 10 years, increasing almost exponentially in the last 2-3. Subsequently dropped 80% and took 15 years to return to those prices.
You do take a stand with your pumpdump comment, BTC is behaving differently and has been doing this for quite a long time so I don't really see similarities with shcoin scams
The weight of farmed turkeys also rises very consistently from birth until a few days before Thanksgiving. Unless you know for certain why bitcoin went up in the past and also know for certain that those conditions have not changed I don't think the argument that "it went up in the past" should be used to justify future behavior.