The cost to train and run these things is going to lead to fewer players eventually. I suspect we end up with 2 or 3 big players in 10 years.

1. Open source models are already at Sonnnet 4.5 levels. For a lot of people’s needs, that's going to be sufficient.

2. Costs will come down as more efficient AI hardware continues to roll out, and once demand eventually catches up with supply in the coming years.

3. So super low cost (or free ad-supported) options will exist, and people will only pay more (in money or ads) for superior quality.

… unless training sources become pay to play?

But the friction and learning curve is what helps you understand what you’re doing. The friction is an integral part of the process.

Both things are true simultaneously. The friction taught me things I wouldn't have learned otherwise; and the reduced friction is the only reason I got far enough to encounter that friction in the first place.

I still debug production issues manually. I still read error logs line by line. The AI got me to the starting line faster but it didn't skip the/my race.

The friction is why so many people never make it far up enough the learning curve to build something useful that solves their problems.

You could say the same thing about learning to fly a plane or play the piano. I’ve got no problem with people using llms to write useful utilities and programs for themselves, but it is leading us into a world where people are creating powerful things they don’t understand. That’s going to have consequences. We are already witnessing some of them.

I’d argue it’s more like driving yourself vs passively being driven everywhere. Remember that scene at the end of E.T.? Where Elliott and his brother steal the van, but they don’t know how to get to their destination because “I don’t know streets mom always drives!”. LLMs are mom always driving - you might recognize some landmarks after a while, but you don’t know the names of the streets to get anywhere.

Miele vacuums are better performers than Dyson, and cheaper too.

Never understood the hype with Dyson. I suspect that like many successful hardware businesses, their story is mainly of brand strength, not of actual product quality.

If you pick up a Dyson vacuum you'll notice that it just feels flimsy in the hand. I think they're aggressively cost-engineered- the material you save by designing molded parts to be minimally thick has got to be like tens of cents to a couple dollars over the whole machine...

The brand is built on Dyson being a super genius inventor. He might be ingenious but he's applied to devices where it's not really needed and with unpalatable trade-offs.

In the UK at least his actions (offshoring, Brexit and tax) have probably significantly devalued the brand with a key part of his core demographic.

I don't know if this is the future or not, but it seems to serve no real purpose other than to enrich LLM company profits. There is real value in well designed code that has been battle tested and hardened over years of bugfixes and iteration. It's reliable, it's reusable, it's efficient and it's secure. The opposite of hastily written and poorly understood vibe code that may or may not even do what you want it to do, even while you think it's doing what you want it to do.

there is software and software. lots of enterprise software gets re-written every 2-5 years, some projects are in rubbish bin as soon as finished (if finished)

It turns out they're really great at building toys, cosplay gear and little plastic parts for things, but in general not that useful in most people's daily lives. Kind of like Ai.

I just tried this question today with Opus 4.6, and it got the answer right - “Drive. You’ll need the car”.

I changed only the destination however and it got it wrong. I think they are manually “fixing” these things as they get publicized.

“I need to go to the mechanic shop. It is 50 meters away. Should I walk or drive?

Walk. 50 meters is basically a one-minute stroll — no reason to deal with starting the car, driving, and parking for that distance.”

The last 16 months of layoffs are almost certainly not because of LLMs. All the cheap money went away, and suddenly tech companies have to be profitable. That means a lot of them are shedding anything not nailed down to make their quarter look better.

The point is there’s no close positive correlation at that scale between labor and profits — hence the layoffs while these companies are doing better than ever. There’s zero reason to think increased productivity would lead to vastly more output from the company with the same amount of workers rather than far fewer workers and about the same amount of output, which is probably driven more by the market than a supply bottleneck.

I wouldn’t trust “Dr” Oz to advise me on which brand of cold medicine to buy, much less the health of myself or my child.

Ironic that he is a cardiovascular surgeon offering his opinion on what is a sufficient assessment for OB/GYN care

It's not really ironic at all. It's entirely possible for someone to be a well-credentialed liar/conman.

Dr. Oz is a con artist, fraud and possibly a pedophile because he was just named in the Epstein files too. No one should be even so much as entertaining anything this man says.

The solution is to regulate insurance companies so these communities could actually afford healthcare and expand social programs for rural areas.

All I really want from Apple is to continue perfecting their computers, phones and tablets to be the absolute best computing devices possible. As long as they keep iteratively improving those things I don’t care if they’re thought or innovation leaders in whatever hot new thing comes along.