now, historically, i'd look at the language choice and ask myself, "would i want to set up a JVM" to run this kotlin app? oh, it's kotlin and python and the installation happens through pipenv?
two different ideas strike me now:
1. would it be worth throwing this at an LLM and having it write it in a different language,
2. if i was just consuming a bundled binary (e.g. go or rust), would i have such reluctance?
i think distribution is becoming increasingly important, making nonsense details like pipenv and whichever version of the JVM is present much greater friction.
Especially with things like github actions creating your releases meaning you don't have to build on your own hardware. You just set up three workflows that build on a windows, mac, and linux image, store the results in temporary storage, with a release workflow that grabs the binaries from storage and packs them up as a binaries + source release.
even if we take the number presented as fact (i'm not sure we should), the articles claim is that:
> "Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden-the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers."
so yeah, the exporter does pay some burden. it's not binary. indeed, tariff exports can be designed in a way to dial either direction. certainly, we could dial foreign exporters burden to 0% – and we could dial it back up to 4% (where we're currently at). but, 4% likely isn't a hard ceiling, either. Of course, the 4% number is an aggregate, not the blanket value across indidual goods (or services).
finally, the effect of tariffs is argued to be wealth transfer to the US Treasury. this is worth thinking harder about. but also, exports may change from whom goods are purchased. thus, it's a diplomatic policy, as well.
This is a whole lot of words with no meaning. Yes 4% is a number that can go up or down, cool? 4% is absolutely meaningless compared to to what was shouted loudly about how other countries would be paying these.
Does it change who customers buy food from? No, because everyone increases their prices regardless of if they’re impacted by tariffs or not.
The 2018 washing machine tariffs are a clear cut example of why tariffs are a garbage strategy.
Price Pass-Through: Studies found that 100% of the tariff cost was passed through to consumers, resulting in an estimated $1.5 billion in additional costs to American families in the first year.
The "Unexpected" Dryer Rise: Although tariffs only applied to washers, the price of dryers (a complementary good often sold with washers) also rose by an equivalent amount—approximately $92 per unit—as manufacturers increased prices on laundry pairs.
Job Creation Cost: While the tariffs helped domestic manufacturers like Whirlpool, LG, and Samsung shift production to the U.S. and create about 1,800 new jobs, researchers estimated that consumers paid over $800,000 annually for each job created.
Outcome: The tariffs resulted in a 49% decline in imports from 2017 to 2019. They expired in February 2023, after which washer prices decreased.
It wasn't a whole lot of words with no meaning, it was a response to the parent comment.
> Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??
My response was that it's not binary, but a mixed case. And, furthermore, from the perspective of an individual exporter, their export profile may change if goods and services are purchased from a different exporter.
E.g. if the same good may be cheaper without a 25% tariff, then you'd expect the incentive to pay less to have some effect.
The US Treasury would still get money, but the exporting country might change.
> finally, the effect of tariffs is argued to be wealth transfer to the US Treasury. this is worth thinking harder about. but also, exports may change from whom goods are purchased. thus, it's a diplomatic policy, as well.
Americans will rightly be suspicious when a think tank in Germany writes about tariff relief that benefits them. Of course, we should all be critical always – that's the first word in the term "critical thinking".
Nitpick: The Kiel Institute is not a think tank in the sense that people would understand the word.
It is a federally funded research organization (part of the family of Leibniz institutes) similar to a university but without teaching. Here's a list of the others [1].
These are independent, high-quality research institutions without political money or a designated political agenda.
The fact that they don't have an agenda written into their charter doesn't mean they don't have an agenda. Basically every American news organization is an example of this.
While your assessment may be true in many contexts, this is not one of them.
American hyper polarization does not permeate other countries in the same degree and German academia is actually full of sober, level-headed, nuanced people.
This has never been the case across the history of humanity -- there has never existed a non-biased institution, and it's incredibly naive to think that a German think tank funded by the German government would be any exception.
"Level headed" and "sober" people are not immune to the effects of incentives and conflicts of interest. Researchers are dependent on grants, on invitations to conferences, etc., and so are liable to follow trends (tariffs bad), and p-hack to support the mainstream narrative (as they do in this analysis with P values > 0.01).
> German academia is actually full of sober, level-headed, nuanced people
Thanks for the laugh. I hope you realize how pretentious this sounds. In actuality, Germany's GDP is about 1/6th of that of the US, so these German academics don't sound very bright for how "level headed" and "sober" they are.
If/since bias is everywhere and implicit because a person is that person and their own experiences, why point it out here so explicitly????
You do not point that out every. Single. Time. somebody argues even though it is true, or do you? Because that is just too shallow, that is the basis, nothing can be below that, so there is no point in pointing to the ground every time. So when you do point it out, it is YOU who has an agenda.
No, just when Europeans (like yourself) need a reminder that they're not exceptional in their "level headedness" and "soberness", and in fact are anti-exceptional when it comes to real world outcomes like GDP.
You misunderstand me. I'm not saying that the Kiel Institute shouldn't be trusted, but there will appropriately be greater scrutiny applied due to its location.
Which sources would I trust? I feel it's important to read broadly, and (on a long scale) improve your ability to discount biases. To that end, I'm not recommending anything, but everything in proportion.
As an American, I wasn’t suspicious at all. I don’t know anyone personally who I think would be, either.
Your comment serves nothing but to suggest anew that Americans _should_ be suspicious. Either that was your aim to begin with or you’re okay with that result.
You misinterpreted my statement. OP was suggesting we should be suspicious because it’s from a Germany entity. I am not suspicious specifically due to it being from Germany.
Also, you are extremely ignorant and uneducated yourself. See, I used the same logic you did—knowing nothing about you and calling you uneducated. Feels good, doesn’t it?
For the sake of quality of discussion, you should least least attempt to write something about the actual study, instead of basing your argument completely on superficial information outside said study.
If you add that information, if you really think it adds any value, after discussing what's actually in the study the comment would be sooo much better.
same here. though, i think bazel is better for DAGs. i wish i could use it for my personal project (in conjunction with, and bootstrapped with nix), but that's a pretty serious tooling investment that I just feel is just going to be a rabbit hole.
> But, field work also brought amazing experiences, I visited the seaside 70+ times over a year, and got an insight into what a time series really means when you cover the tidal and weather and seasonal cycles.
I’m not exactly sure if we share a similar experience, but living on a trail in the Santa Cruz mountains affords me the opportunity to hike the same trails every weekend, year round (or even daily).
I’m not taking measurements, but it’s incredible to witness the effect of seasons on familiar territory just a few miles outside town. The weather changes, the wildlife changes and the air changes (moist to dry and back).
It’s an incredibly special experience to revisit the same place time and time again and witness the impact of … time. I hope you found something else to replace your familiar seaside.
In commentary on the article, a photo gallery of nine images, I didn’t get much out of it. Maybe because it didn’t show much actual change (aside from one side by side 5 years apart, and another one days or weeks apart?).
It is a common myth about these California "droughts." Like anywhere, water fluctuates, but CA is not abnormal in this regard.
And really CA has plenty of water, but the people fight for the farmers for it, and the farmers win. Agriculture is about 80-90% of total use. All of residential, commercial, industrial, baseball fields, golf courses, residential lawns - all make up 10-20% of water use.
So why the constant "drought"-alerts and admonitions to take shorter showers and flush less often? Because every gallon used in your home takes money out of a farmer's pocket. 1 flush ~= two almonds. A shower is ~5-10 almonds. 5 showers is an avocado. If you don't use it, they will - and if you use it, they can't.
now, historically, i'd look at the language choice and ask myself, "would i want to set up a JVM" to run this kotlin app? oh, it's kotlin and python and the installation happens through pipenv?
two different ideas strike me now:
1. would it be worth throwing this at an LLM and having it write it in a different language,
2. if i was just consuming a bundled binary (e.g. go or rust), would i have such reluctance?
i think distribution is becoming increasingly important, making nonsense details like pipenv and whichever version of the JVM is present much greater friction.
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